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An analysis of the energy market in Australia has found that a number of coal-fired power stations in the country could be financially unviable by 2025 and at least one could be forced to close early.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) Joint Report believes that the advisory firm Green Energy Markets is trying to quantify the rising pressure on coal-fired power plants as a flood of cheaper and more flexible renewable energy hits the grid.

In NSW, the most vulnerable power stations were concerned that sudden shutdowns would result in a shortage of dispatchable power unless the transition was better managed.

“The market is facing a tidal wave of new supply, much greater than anything government authorities or market analysts forecast or even contemplated just two years ago,” Green Energy Markets director Tristan Edis said.

“The supply added from 2018 to 2025 equates to over a third of the entire demand in the National Electricity Market (NEM), and more than eight times the annual generation of the Liddell coal-fired power station in NSW.

“So something has got to give.”

New wind and solar plants will add 70,000 gigawatt hours of additional supply between 2018 and 2025, which is greater than New South Wales’ entire annual electricity consumption, the report said.

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